Market Daily: Brent slips in early trade after weekend Saudi airport attacks

Brent crude opened higher when trading resumed on Sunday evening, after more Saudi airport attacks on Sunday 11 October, in Riyadh and Dammam, and strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. The rise did not hold: by 04:19 BST on Monday 12 October, Brent futures were at $102.91 a barrel, 1.73 per cent below Friday’s close. London’s last session, on Friday 9 October, ended with the FTSE 100 up 1.06 per cent as gilt yields eased from their highest levels since 2007.

The day ahead

Monday 12 October is the Columbus Day holiday in the United States. Shares trade as normal, but the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association recommends a full close for the US bond market, and the Federal Reserve has moved its daily and weekly statistical releases to Tuesday 13 October. In London, Pennon’s ordinary shares are expected to go ex-rights at 8:00 am BST under its £550 million rights issue, so purchases from then on will not carry the entitlement, although investors may separately buy rights. Hays is due to publish a trading statement, and Aberdeen’s placing of 52 million Standard Life shares is due to settle. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will announce the 2026 economics prize at 11:45 CEST (10:45 BST) at the earliest. EU foreign ministers are expected to add about 1,600 individuals and entities to the bloc’s Russia sanctions list. Background on these items is in our 11 October edition.

UK Market Update

The FTSE 100 closed at 10,552.10 on Friday 9 October, up 110.50 points or 1.06 per cent from Thursday’s 10,441.60. The FTSE 250 closed at 24,213.80, up 269.90 points or 1.13 per cent from 23,943.90. Between the closes on Friday 2 October and Friday 9 October, the FTSE 100 rose 0.86 per cent from 10,462.00 and the FTSE 250 rose 0.08 per cent from 24,194.20.

Software and data stocks were among Friday’s risers. Relx rose 4.8 per cent, Sage Group 4.3 per cent and Experian 4.2 per cent. Antofagasta gained 4.6 per cent as copper prices firmed. Telecom shares fell: Airtel Africa lost 6.3 per cent, Vodafone 4.9 per cent and BT Group 2.4 per cent. The falls came after SpaceX agreed to buy US mobile spectrum, a deal that still needs FCC approval. Airtel Africa’s move also coincided with the London listing of its Airtel Money unit. Our 10 October edition covers the SpaceX deal in detail. The telecom falls could reflect concern about satellite operators becoming direct rivals, rather than only partners filling coverage gaps.

US Market Update

The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on Friday 9 October, up 46.18 points or 0.59 per cent from Thursday’s 7,765.36. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,366.17, up 172.83 points or 0.64 per cent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,654.95, up 423.31 points or 0.83 per cent. Between the closes on Friday 2 October and Friday 9 October, the S&P 500 rose 1.15 per cent, the Nasdaq 0.64 per cent and the Dow 0.93 per cent.

US share trading opens as normal on Monday despite Columbus Day. Treasury trading is not expected to return to normal until Tuesday 13 October.

Global Markets

More attacks on Saudi Arabia and shipping. A day after Saturday’s deadly missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, covered in our 11 October edition, a second attack on Sunday 11 October hit the airport’s Terminal 4 and started a fire. Saudi authorities confirmed one death and 11 injuries. Later on Sunday, Saudi authorities confirmed an attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam after Yemen’s Houthis claimed it. The US Federal Aviation Administration told US airlines to use “extreme caution” in Saudi airspace. At sea, the UK Maritime Trade Operations service said a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile, with all crew safe. India said the tanker MT Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone at the Sohar anchorage off Oman, and two of its Indian crew were missing. The war between the United States and Iran began on 28 February 2026. These attacks matter for markets because they bring the fighting closer to Gulf oil export routes and to Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest producer.

Iran talks. On Sunday the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council called Washington’s reply to Tehran’s seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz “insufficient”, according to a live report of the day’s events. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would “continue to pressure” Iran’s economy.

Bonds, Currencies and Commodities

Gilts. Gilt yields fell on Friday 9 October after touching their highest levels since 2007 earlier in the week. At 17:00 on Friday, the 4¾ per cent gilt maturing in October 2035, the 10-year benchmark, yielded 5.454 per cent, down 3.2 basis points on the day. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The 5⅜ per cent gilt maturing in 2056, a 30-year bond, yielded 6.043 per cent, down 3.7 basis points. Yields this high raise the cost of government borrowing ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s Budget on Wednesday 28 October, leaving less room for tax cuts or extra spending within the fiscal rules. Bank Rate is 3.75 per cent. The Bank of England held it by six votes to three on 17 September, with three members preferring a rise to 4 per cent. The Fed’s federal funds target range is 3.75 to 4.00 per cent after a quarter-point rise on 16 September. Our Investing Basics section explains why bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasuries. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24 per cent on Friday 9 October, up from 5.23 per cent on Thursday and down from 5.28 per cent on Friday 2 October.

Currencies. Sterling closed at $1.3234 on Friday 9 October (17:00 New York), up from $1.3229 on Thursday but down from $1.3240 on Friday 2 October. It was at $1.3245 at 04:29 BST on Monday. The euro closed at $1.1206 on Friday, down from $1.1215 on Thursday and from $1.1256 a week earlier.

Oil. Brent crude futures closed at $104.72 a barrel on Friday 9 October, up 0.42 per cent on the day and 2.42 per cent from $102.25 on Friday 2 October. US WTI crude futures closed at $91.85, up 0.39 per cent on the day and 0.81 per cent on the week. When trading reopened after the weekend attacks, Brent rose to $105.48 by 7:04 pm EDT on Sunday (00:04 BST on Monday). By 04:19 BST on Monday it had slipped to $102.91, down 1.73 per cent from Friday’s close, and WTI was at $89.95 at 04:20 BST, down 2.07 per cent.

Metals. Gold futures closed at $4,216.30 an ounce on Friday 9 October, up 1.43 per cent on the day and 1.30 per cent on the week, and were at $4,228.80 at 04:20 BST on Monday. Copper futures closed at $6.6425 a pound on Friday, up 1.89 per cent on the day and 2.32 per cent on the week, and were at $6.734 at 04:20 BST on Monday.

Crypto

Crypto trades around the clock. The figures below are a snapshot taken at 04:29 BST on Monday 12 October, with changes over the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin was at $83,593, up 0.90 per cent, and ether at $2,541.49, up 1.52 per cent. Solana was at $111.65, up 1.98 per cent, XRP at $1.40, up 0.75 per cent, and Chainlink at $13.33, up 3.30 per cent.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading for 12 October is 69, labelled “Greed”, up from 61 on 11 October. The index combines volatility, trading volume, social media and other signals on a scale where 0 means extreme fear and 100 extreme greed. Our Crypto Decoded guides explain how to read it.

ETF outflows. US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds had net outflows of $679 million last week, a reversal from the previous week, driven by withdrawals on 7 and 8 October. Net flows measure the difference between money entering the funds through new share creations and money leaving through redemptions over the period; they do not measure total trading in the funds or in bitcoin itself.

AI, Technology and Investor Tools

Iran names data centres as possible targets. In an interview with Press TV on Saturday 10 October, reported by the broadcaster on Sunday 11 October, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, threatened US-linked cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities in the region if war resumes. This matters to technology investors because the AI build-out depends on large, physically exposed data centres and undersea cables, and the threat could add to geopolitical risks affecting costs and insurance.

What to Watch Next

Sunday evening oil reaction (follow-up). Our 11 October edition said energy futures would give the first market verdict on the Riyadh attack. Brent rose to $105.48 on Sunday evening but was down 1.73 per cent from Friday’s close at $102.91 by 04:19 BST on Monday.

• Tuesday 13 October: US bond trading resumes after Columbus Day, and the Fed publishes the statistical releases moved from Monday.
• Wednesday 14 October, 8:00 am BST: Unconditional dealings in Airtel Money shares begin on the London Stock Exchange.
• Wednesday 14 October, 8:30 am EDT (13:30 BST): US consumer price index for September.
• Thursday 15 October, 07:00 BST: UK GDP monthly estimate for August.
• Tuesday 20 October, 07:00 BST: UK labour market figures for October.
• Wednesday 21 October, 07:00 BST: UK consumer price inflation for September.
• Friday 23 October, 10:00 am EDT (15:00 BST): Final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
• Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October: Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
• Wednesday 28 October: Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, with new Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts.
• Tuesday 10 November, 8:30 am EST (13:30 GMT): US consumer price index for October.
• Thursday 12 November, 07:00 GMT: UK GDP monthly estimate for September.
• Wednesday 18 November, 07:00 GMT: UK consumer price inflation for October.