Market Daily: US 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007

The day ahead

US government-bond yields reached levels last seen in 2007 during Monday’s session, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all closed lower. Higher borrowing costs can pressure shares and non-interest-paying assets such as gold, although they do not explain every move. Before this briefing’s cut-off on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate, citing inflation risks that include energy costs.

In the UK, two 07:00 BST results need different readings. A.G. Barr grew revenue and adjusted profit, but statutory profit fell and the group moved from net cash a year ago to net bank debt. Close Brothers reported a smaller statutory loss than last year, while its substantial motor-finance provision and decision to withhold a final dividend remain central questions for shareholders.

Elsewhere, Coinbase gained a regulated US clearing capability, Bitget said Bitcoin-network withdrawals had reopened after its security incident, and Nvidia introduced software and a reference design for controlling AI agents. AMD also agreed an AI acquisition. In oil, preliminary data suggested Gulf exports had recovered partly through costly workarounds; November Brent futures and Monday’s gold low are separately timed observations, not one simultaneous market snapshot.

News selection closed at 07:37 British Summer Time, or 06:37 UTC, on Tuesday 29 September 2026. The fixed cryptocurrency observations were made separately at 07:31:50 BST. Traditional markets and continuously traded crypto assets therefore have different observation windows.

UK Market Update

A.G. Barr grows sales, while statutory profit and cash weaken

A.G. Barr’s interim results cover the 26 weeks ended 1 August. Revenue rose 8.5% to £247.4 million and adjusted profit before tax rose 2.6% to £36.1 million. Statutory profit before tax, which includes costs excluded from the adjusted measure, fell 3.7% to £33.9 million, principally because of one-off costs to integrate Fentimans. Both profit measures matter: the adjusted figure helps compare underlying operations, while the statutory result shows what was recorded after those costs.

The Irn-Bru manufacturer said summer supply constraints had affected customer service but were resolved. It reported an adjusted operating margin of 15% and said the integrations of Fentimans and Frobishers were complete, with cost savings expected from the second half. Expected savings are prospective, not cash already received.

A.G. Barr ended the half with £47.0 million of net bank debt, against £41.3 million of net cash a year earlier, an £88.3 million swing. Operating activities used £7.6 million of cash, compared with £15.7 million generated a year earlier. The company pointed to acquisition spending, first-half capital investment, the timing of a July payment run and working capital. These explanations are relevant, but the next results will show whether cash generation recovers. Management said it remains on track to meet market expectations of approximately 10% full-year revenue growth and declared an interim dividend of 3.82p per share. Guidance is an expectation, not an achieved result.

The useful next comparison is whether service levels stay stable and anticipated acquisition savings support margins and operating cash. Faster sales growth alone would not answer that question.

Close Brothers’ motor-finance provision weighs on a smaller annual loss

Close Brothers’ preliminary results, released at 07:00 BST, reported a £60.3 million statutory operating loss before tax for the year ended 31 July, compared with a £122.4 million loss a year earlier. The smaller loss is progress, but the specialist lender remains exposed to uncertainty over motor-finance redress.

Its provision for that issue stood at about £320 million after an increase of about £165 million during the financial year. Close Brothers said the £320 million amount was unchanged since its third-quarter trading update; it is not a new £165 million charge announced this morning. The group will not pay a final dividend while the scheme’s outcome remains uncertain. Readers should compare the final redress rules and eventual cost with the existing provision and the group’s capital position, rather than treating the improved loss figure as an end to the issue.

US Market Update

Monday’s US close: shares fall as bond yields climb

AP reported that the S&P 500 finished Monday 28 September at 7,683.69, down about 0.8%; the Nasdaq closed at 26,820.38, down about 0.9%; and the Dow ended at 51,481.51, down about 0.7%. The 10-year US Treasury yield was around 5.23% after touching its highest level since 2007. These are observations from Monday’s completed session, not Tuesday’s opening prices. Rising long-term borrowing costs can affect company valuations and households even before a policy-rate decision changes.

Coinbase gains a regulated US clearing capability

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission recorded Coinbase Clearing LLC as a registered derivatives clearing organisation on 28 September. The CFTC register says it may clear fully collateralised futures, options on futures and swaps.

A clearing organisation stands between participants after a derivatives trade, managing obligations and settlement under its rules. Fully collateralised means the required exposure is backed by collateral rather than depending entirely on an unsecured promise. Registration therefore gives Coinbase an important piece of regulated infrastructure, but it does not remove market, operational or counterparty risk.

Coinbase said the registration completes its combination of a derivatives exchange, broker and clearing organisation. It intends to use Coinbase Clearing to create and settle fully collateralised contracts directly, with USDC collateral and continuous settlement. USDC is a dollar-linked stablecoin used for blockchain-based transfers.

The company also said it would continue using partners for some products, including its margined derivatives business. Registration should therefore not be read as evidence that every existing or proposed contract has moved in-house. Product launches can still require separate rules, eligibility checks and operational preparation.

For investors, the development expands Coinbase’s role from providing access to trades towards controlling more of the infrastructure behind them. The next useful evidence will be which contracts actually use the clearing organisation, how collateral and default procedures work, and whether customers receive clearer or cheaper execution. Those outcomes cannot be inferred from registration alone.

Global Markets

Recovering Gulf exports do not remove the oil bottleneck

Reuters reported that preliminary Kpler data put crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers at 12.8 million barrels a day in September, their highest level since February. Higher Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates shipments helped that recovery, while the conflict involving Iran and uncertainty over Gulf shipping remained part of the backdrop.

Some exports still depended on workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers. KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer, quoted by Reuters, described those methods as less efficient and more costly than normal operations. Higher estimated physical exports therefore do not mean regional logistics have returned to normal. Both shipping conditions and delivered volumes matter to fuel importers, airlines, manufacturers and inflation expectations.

Australia raises rates as energy adds to inflation pressure

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced at 14:30 Australian Eastern Standard Time, or 05:30 BST on 29 September, that it had raised its cash-rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60%. The bank cited elevated inflation and risks from Middle East energy costs, alongside rising global prices for technology-related goods. A higher Australian policy rate changes borrowing conditions there; it does not establish that UK or US rates will follow. Subsequent inflation data and central-bank commentary will show how persistent those pressures are.

Bonds, Currencies and Commodities

Bond yields put Monday’s gold fall in context

The 10-year US Treasury yield was around 5.23% after Monday’s rise and briefly touched its highest level since 2007, according to AP’s completed-session report. A bond yield is the return implied by its market price; it rises when that price falls. Higher yields can make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to gold, which pays no contractual interest. They also raise the benchmark against which many borrowing costs and share valuations are judged. This is a plausible mechanism, not proof that yields caused every move in gold or equities.

November and December Brent are different prices

Reuters observed November Brent crude futures at US$106.99 a barrel at 06:26 GMT on Tuesday 29 September while trading was open. The same report put the more actively traded December contract at US$99.51. These are different delivery months, not conflicting quotes for the same barrel. Neither figure is a settlement or a single price for all future oil deliveries.

Middle East supply uncertainty and signs of recovering exports provide competing context rather than proof that one event caused the entire price move. Higher realised prices can help some producers, while refiners, transport businesses and consumers may face higher input costs. Comparisons should name the delivery month and observation time.

Gold falls as interest-bearing alternatives become more demanding

Reuters reported that spot gold fell as much as 4% to US$4,111 per troy ounce during Monday 28 September trading, its lowest level since 5 August. This was a Monday intraday spot-price low in US dollars per troy ounce, not Tuesday’s price or an official settlement.

StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell, quoted by Reuters, identified continued central-bank buying and Indian demand as possible support for gold. Those are her assessments, not measured causes of Monday’s move. Reuters also reported softer Chinese demand ahead of the October holiday period.

World Gold Council figures reported by Reuters showed gold-backed exchange-traded funds had outflows of 1.6 metric tonnes in the preceding week, while total holdings remained 4,249 tonnes. The first is a weekly flow; the second is the stock of holdings. Neither is the metal’s daily trading volume. The next comparison should use newly timed gold and Treasury observations rather than combine Monday’s gold low with a later bond quote.

Crypto

The fixed sample rose, led by Chainlink

The fixed panel below covers five selected crypto assets quoted in US dollars. Provider observations were made at 06:31:50 UTC, or 07:31:50 BST, on 29 September while crypto markets were trading continuously. It is a crypto-only sample, not a measure of every digital asset or of wider financial markets.

All five assets in the selected sample were higher over their rolling 24-hour periods. Chainlink showed the largest change, at approximately 8.30%. These continuously changing comparisons are not formal daily closes. They describe a sample of five assets and do not establish why prices changed.

Bitget says Bitcoin-network withdrawals have reopened

Bitget published a service notice dated 28 September stating that withdrawals had opened for BTC on the Bitcoin network. This is the completed operational step that had still been scheduled rather than achieved in the previous edition.

The scope is deliberately narrow. The notice concerns Bitcoin withdrawals through the Bitcoin network. It does not establish the availability of every asset, every blockchain route or every account, and an operator notice is not independent proof that all customer withdrawals completed successfully.

A customer considering a transfer should check the asset and network displayed in the account, confirm that the destination supports that same route and consider a small test before moving a larger amount. Cristoniq’s crypto transfer runbook explains these checks. A displayed withdrawal button is not the same as confirmed arrival at the destination.

SEC staff adds an important condition to token-buyback guidance

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Corporation Finance updated a crypto-assets frequently asked question on 28 September. The staff guidance now says its stated view of a non-security crypto-asset buyback applies where the underlying system is functional and has no central party.

The wording matters because a project should not present the answer as a blanket exemption for token buybacks. The staff says an announcement could still amount to a promise of essential managerial efforts where a system is not functional and the issuer presents the buyback as producing yield or return for holders.

This is staff guidance, not a new statute, Commission rule or enforcement decision. The SEC page expressly says it has no legal force and creates no new obligation. Its practical value is narrower: it shows that functionality and the absence of a central party are material qualifications when assessing promotional claims about buybacks.

Chainlink makes cross-chain verification more modular

Chainlink released Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol 2.0, or CCIP 2.0, on 28 September. Cross-chain infrastructure passes messages or assets between blockchains that do not natively share one ledger.

The release adds optional custom verifiers, integration with Chainlink’s compliance-policy system, configurable execution and developer tools including an application programming interface, software development kit and command-line interface. Chainlink says the existing router interface remains unchanged and that the default still waits for full finality, while users can opt into faster confirmation settings according to their risk threshold.

Modularity can help institutions apply their own controls, but it also creates choices that require evaluation. Faster-than-finality transfers trade waiting time for a different risk profile, while a custom verifier is only as dependable as its design, operation and incentives. The launch does not show that cross-chain risk has disappeared or that every application will use the optional controls correctly.

AI, Technology and Investor Tools

Nvidia moves AI-agent controls outside the agent itself

Nvidia launched its Open Agent Safety Platform on 28 September. The platform combines OpenShell, open-source software intended to set and enforce runtime boundaries, with Sentry, a reference system design intended to monitor agent behaviour from an isolated environment.

An AI agent is software that can perform multi-step tasks with tools, data and external systems. Application-level instructions alone may not be sufficient if an agent finds an unexpected route around them. Nvidia’s stated approach is to trace actions and enforce policies outside the model’s immediate working process. The company says Sentry can quarantine an agent that attempts to leave its permitted boundary.

OpenShell is broadly available, according to Nvidia, and can be extended to third-party computing platforms. Sentry depends on Nvidia BlueField-4 data-processing hardware and remains a reference design rather than proof that every deployment is protected. Nvidia lists more than 100 organisations working with the technologies, but participation or integration does not demonstrate the same level of adoption in every case.

A controlled AI-assisted research workflow

1. Give the agent access only to the documents, folders and market-data services needed for the defined question.
2. Require a source URL, reporting period, currency and observation time beside every extracted figure.
3. Keep messaging, trading, account changes and external uploads outside the agent’s permissions unless separately approved.
4. Recalculate ratios and comparisons independently of the generated narrative.
5. Review the audit trail and final sources before relying on the result.

The practical investor lesson is that agent safety is not simply a model-accuracy problem. Permissions, network access, credential boundaries and an external record of actions all matter. Nvidia’s launch supplies building blocks for those controls, but organisations still need to configure and test them for their own systems. No hands-on performance assessment is implied here.

AMD agrees an US$8.2 billion AI acquisition

AMD said on 28 September that it had agreed an all-stock purchase of World Labs, an AI model and research company, valued at approximately US$8.2 billion. The deal is not completed; AMD expects to close it by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and customary conditions.

AMD’s stated aim is to combine AI model expertise with its hardware and software work. For investors, the questions are how the team and products will be integrated, what issuing shares means for existing holders, and whether the acquisition produces commercial demand beyond the announcement. None of those outcomes follows automatically from signing the agreement.

What to Watch Next

• 29 September, after 08:00 UTC: Bitget had scheduled restoration of withdrawals on selected Ethereum routes after this briefing’s cut-off. Check for a fresh network-specific service notice rather than assuming the timetable was completed.
• Later on 29 September: compare the relevant Brent delivery contract with the pre-cut-off November-futures observation of US$106.99 a barrel at 06:26 GMT. Also watch physical Gulf exports and shipping workarounds, not price alone.
• Next A.G. Barr update: examine second-half margins, operating cash generation and net debt to see whether resolved supply constraints and expected acquisition savings translate into stronger profit conversion.
• Coinbase product launches: identify which contracts actually clear through Coinbase Clearing, the collateral accepted and the customer-eligibility rules. Registration is an infrastructure approval, not a launch notice for every possible derivative.
• Next US rates session: compare clearly timed Treasury yields with gold and equity observations from the same period. Avoid treating Monday’s gold low and a later yield as simultaneous evidence.
• AI-agent deployments: look for independent evidence about OpenShell and Sentry’s operational overhead, compatibility and ability to contain real incidents. Vendor architecture claims are a starting point, not completed validation.

Update, 29 September 2026: Added pre-cut-off UK company, US market, Australian rate and AI company context; clarified A.G. Barr’s statutory result, oil and gold attribution, and the Bitget notice time. The original publication time, news cut-off and fixed crypto figures are unchanged.

This briefing provides educational information, not personalised investment, trading, tax or legal advice.